The NFL season is quickly approaching, and that means it’s that time of year again for fantasy football drafts. One of the biggest keys to dominating your draft is finding ‘undervalued’ players that should be ranked higher, or in other words finish the season ranked higher than their current average draft position (ADP).
In determining each player’s ADP, we utilized the data from Football Football Calculator which takes the average of 1,988 fantasy football mock drafts between (August 26-27th). The data used to show where each player finished last season ranked in total fantasy points was used from Fantasy Data.
Quarterback, is without a doubt the most important position on an actual football field, but most fantasy players would agree that it’s not the most important when constructing your fantasy team. A lot of times the difference in scores for QBs might not be too much, so finding 1-2 QBs in the later rounds may actually lead to great success if you don’t want to reach for one of the top ones.
To help you navigate who those QBs this year might be, here are five quarterbacks (outside of the Top 10) in current ADP order who could outperform their current ADP.
Ryan Tannehill (Titans): ADP – QB`11:
Tannehill seems like he’s finally starting to receive the recognition he deserves based on his last 2 years of success in Tennesee. In 26 games he’s thrown for 6,56 YDS-55 TD-13 INT, but based on his ADP he’s still extremely undervalued. His ADP is QB11, despite finishing last season as QB7 – only trailing Allen, Rodgers, Murray, Mahomes, Watson and Wilson.
It’s a bit surprising to see Tannehill’s ADP at 11, especially considering he’s had success and now has Julio Jones to throw too on the opposite side of A.J. Brown. Matt Stafford has a higher ADP at QB9, and even though Stafford is in a much favorable situation than he was last year, he still finished as the 16th ranked QB last year, which would be a huge improvement to jump his ADP.
Joe Burrow (Bengals) ADP – QB13:
Assuming Burrow returns to the field healthy and remains durable the entire season, there is a lot of reason to believe he could finish as a Top 10 QB. Burrow has three very talented receivers to throw too, in an offensive scheme that will allow him to throw the ball plenty of times – especially if they are trailing in games. There might not be significant value here, but if you miss out on one of the top ones he could be a great mid-round pick who might have some high scoring weeks.
Jameis Winston (Saints): ADP – QB20:
Head coach Sean Payton officially announced Winston is the team’s starting QB, and this could be Jameis’s time to shine. Despite infamously being the first member of the 30/30 club with Tampa Bay in 2019, he still threw for 5,000 yards and finished the season as QB5. With a full year preparing for the job learning from Drew Brees, Winston could easily outperform his ADP of 20 and has the potential if everything all goes right finishing as a Top 10 fantasy QB.
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins): ADP – QB21:
Entering his 2nd NFL season, Tua is primed to take the next step in 2021 and prove that he can be a reliable week-to-week QB1 in fantasy. Last season, Ryan Fitzpatrick stole the show playing the majority of the season, but now Tua has the full confidence of his team and could be a huge sleeper. It also helps he now he has two electrifying playmakers added to the offense in Will Fuller and former college teammate Jaylen Waddle should really help speed up his development.
Kirk Cousins (Vikings): ADP – QB 23:
This one might seem a bit surprising, but there actually could be a lot of value here.. Kirk Cousins quietly finished last season as QB11, and his current ADP is QB23. Which means that he would have to drop 12 spots this year (with the same skill players as last year) to match his ADP.. Even if he puts up around the same numbers as he did last year there’s actually value with this pick in the late rounds.
Honorable Mentions:
The 5 Rookie 1st-Round QBs: Each one of these five QBs have a chance to outperform their current ADP, but for some it all depends on when they’ll become the starter..
Trey Lance (49ers): Would be the top fantasy option amongst the five rookie QBs, but unfortunately there’s uncertainty on when he’ll end up becoming the starter. His current ADP is QB14, which would not be considered a value if he ends up sitting for the majority of the season. If he becomes the starter within the first few games, then he could absolutely be a great value with Top 10 potential.
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) & Zach Wilson (Jets): Both will start right away but are on the two worst teams from last year, so there could be potential growing pains especially in the beginning of the year. The better bet here would be Lawrence who could either have a season similar to Justin Herbert last year, or just been average matchup-based fantasy QB. Wilson does have has a chance to be a sleeper if it all works out.
Justin Fields (Bears) & Mac Jones (Patriots): Both could have an opportunity to excel in their rookie years, but it all depends on how soon they would become the starter. Jones and Fields for the most part have looked terrific despite being the last ones selected of the 5.
Carson Wentz (Colts): Wentz had a nightmare season in Philadelphia last year and is currently recovering from a preseason foot injury, but back at pratice. If Wentz is able to adjust in a very familiar offensive system under Frank Reich, he could absolutely be a Top 20, especially considering he finished QB22 last year despite all his struggles and being benched. His current ADP is not even in the Top 25, but he might have been if he didn’t get injured so there could be potential value here.
Sam Darnold (Panthers): Same story as Wentz, hopefully for Sam the grass is greener on the other side. Just like Wentz, Darnold has a ton to prove and there’s reason to be optimistic about this year for Sam. He went from having Adam Gase as his head coach, with basically no wide receivers (besides Jamison Crowder) — to now having 3 solid receivers (Anderson, Moore, Marshall) and one of the bright young offensive minds in OC Joe Brady. In a make-or-break season Darnold has a decent chance to either be a deep sleeper in fantasy, but definitely not the safest bet compared to some of the others.
Off The Gridiron 